WEBVTT Kind: captions Language: en 00:00:01.680 --> 00:00:04.260 Everyone, I've had this cold for 2 or 3 weeks now, 00:00:04.260 --> 00:00:07.060 and it seriously affected our normal production schedule. 00:00:07.060 --> 00:00:09.040 Honestly, it's not a major illness, 00:00:09.040 --> 00:00:12.632 but Japan's medical system really dragged this whole thing out. 00:00:12.760 --> 00:00:14.971 About 2 weeks ago, I went to the hospital. 00:00:15.120 --> 00:00:17.560 They tested me for Covid, the flu, and all that, 00:00:17.560 --> 00:00:19.110 and it turned out to be neither. 00:00:19.180 --> 00:00:22.320 So they gave me medicine for the symptoms, stuff for coughing, 00:00:22.320 --> 00:00:23.720 nasal congestion, and so on. 00:00:24.100 --> 00:00:25.563 But no antibiotics. 00:00:25.700 --> 00:00:30.077 Even then, I already suspected it was a bacterial upper respiratory infection. 00:00:30.266 --> 00:00:33.046 I took the medicine for a few days, but it didn't really help. 00:00:33.140 --> 00:00:36.270 So last Friday, when I saw there was still no improvement, 00:00:36.541 --> 00:00:37.891 I went back to the hospital. 00:00:38.080 --> 00:00:41.032 I told the doctor, look, my mucus is yellow. 00:00:41.140 --> 00:00:43.233 This is obviously a bacterial infection. 00:00:43.380 --> 00:00:44.881 Just give me antibiotics. 00:00:45.140 --> 00:00:46.720 He finally gave me 3 days worth. 00:00:47.380 --> 00:00:49.280 I took them from Friday through Sunday, 00:00:49.280 --> 00:00:50.840 and I could clearly feel the difference. 00:00:51.320 --> 00:00:53.200 But I finished the medicine yesterday, 00:00:53.200 --> 00:00:56.200 and this morning I went back again and got a few more days of antibiotics. 00:00:56.200 --> 00:00:58.420 If they had prescribed them a week earlier, 00:00:58.420 --> 00:01:00.040 I'd probably be fine by now. 00:01:00.540 --> 00:01:02.454 But as you can hear, my voice, 00:01:02.594 --> 00:01:05.126 and especially this nasal tone, still sounds sick. 00:01:05.300 --> 00:01:09.333 So today, I basically dragged myself into the office and kept recording the show. 00:01:09.607 --> 00:01:11.067 Now what are we talking about today? 00:01:11.222 --> 00:01:12.086 As everyone knows, 00:01:12.088 --> 00:01:15.388 the CCP is currently holding the two sessions in China. 00:01:15.560 --> 00:01:17.540 And the two sessions, you know how it works. 00:01:17.920 --> 00:01:21.340 The rubber stamp National People's Congress goes to Beijing, 00:01:21.340 --> 00:01:24.200 everybody shows up, has a few meals, votes yes, 00:01:24.200 --> 00:01:27.440 and all the major policy plans are treated as approved. 00:01:28.180 --> 00:01:32.080 This year, there are two big topics that both Chinese and foreign media are watching. 00:01:32.480 --> 00:01:33.780 One is economic growth. 00:01:34.140 --> 00:01:37.120 The target has dropped from 5% to 4.5%. 00:01:37.390 --> 00:01:39.700 So naturally, some people are saying, well, 00:01:39.700 --> 00:01:42.100 this shows the Chinese economy is under pressure. 00:01:42.920 --> 00:01:47.800 The other big topic is the approval of the 15th Five-Year Plan. 00:01:48.500 --> 00:01:51.880 Both are broad economic blueprints for the future. 00:01:52.580 --> 00:01:53.960 Generally speaking, 00:01:53.960 --> 00:01:57.860 China's NPC delegates don't really get to speak on issues like this. 00:01:58.160 --> 00:02:00.620 They hand you the plan, you look it over, 00:02:00.620 --> 00:02:02.960 and when it's time to vote, you vote yes. 00:02:03.520 --> 00:02:08.540 So if you want to survive as an NPC delegate in China, there's one rule. 00:02:09.160 --> 00:02:12.040 Don't actually think of yourself as an NPC delegate. 00:02:12.520 --> 00:02:15.320 Don't think of yourself as part of the highest legislative body. 00:02:15.320 --> 00:02:18.120 Just think of yourself as a high-level spectator. 00:02:18.420 --> 00:02:20.840 When they tell you to vote, you vote yes. 00:02:21.380 --> 00:02:24.640 Shen Zhilan served as an NPC delegate for eight terms, 00:02:24.640 --> 00:02:26.020 and she said it herself. 00:02:26.520 --> 00:02:27.600 I've learned one thing. 00:02:28.040 --> 00:02:29.480 I vote yes on everything. 00:02:29.920 --> 00:02:33.180 These matters have already been decided by the party and the state. 00:02:33.640 --> 00:02:37.140 What opinions could we ordinary representatives possibly have? 00:02:37.360 --> 00:02:39.520 So I vote yes on all of it. 00:02:40.260 --> 00:02:42.780 And that tells you a lot about how the system works. 00:02:43.740 --> 00:02:47.880 Later, people asked her what kind of person is fit to be an NPC delegate. 00:02:48.520 --> 00:02:49.680 She gave the standard answer. 00:02:50.120 --> 00:02:54.100 An NPC delegate should represent the people and help them solve problems. 00:02:54.520 --> 00:02:58.580 But when they asked whether she actually communicated with voters, she said no. 00:02:59.080 --> 00:03:01.280 She said, ours is a democratic election. 00:03:01.620 --> 00:03:04.100 If you go around talking too much, that's not appropriate. 00:03:04.500 --> 00:03:07.160 If people don't elect you, then don't go talk to them. 00:03:07.600 --> 00:03:08.320 That's dangerous. 00:03:09.207 --> 00:03:11.487 And really, the people who get into trouble 00:03:11.674 --> 00:03:14.554 are the ones who take the whole thing too seriously. 00:03:14.700 --> 00:03:17.320 People who actually believe they are genuine representatives. 00:03:17.960 --> 00:03:21.720 People who really think they are part of the highest organ of state power. 00:03:22.260 --> 00:03:23.540 Those people usually don't end well. 00:03:23.860 --> 00:03:25.840 Maybe you get too much attention this year, 00:03:25.840 --> 00:03:27.040 and next year, you're gone. 00:03:27.300 --> 00:03:30.340 So what do delegates usually talk about during the two sessions? 00:03:30.880 --> 00:03:34.140 Mostly livelihood issues, things closer to everyday life. 00:03:34.820 --> 00:03:38.700 The big macro questions are left to the party and the government. 00:03:39.420 --> 00:03:43.800 Economic growth targets, five-year plans, long-term strategy. 00:03:44.260 --> 00:03:48.160 Those are not really areas where delegates are supposed to have much of a voice. 00:03:48.740 --> 00:03:51.140 But on social issues and daily life concerns, 00:03:51.660 --> 00:03:53.320 they're given a little room to speak. 00:03:53.880 --> 00:03:56.140 For example, during this year's two sessions, 00:03:56.540 --> 00:04:00.540 there was a village party secretary from Liaoning named Tong Liang. 00:04:01.080 --> 00:04:04.040 Not a township party secretary, a village party secretary. 00:04:04.620 --> 00:04:06.220 And Tong Liang said... 00:04:31.700 --> 00:04:33.060 After he gave that interview, 00:04:33.068 --> 00:04:34.828 it immediately drew a lot of media attention. 00:04:34.980 --> 00:04:36.380 And now that Chen Jilan is gone, 00:04:36.700 --> 00:04:40.080 there are only a handful of rural delegates left in the National People's Congress. 00:04:40.300 --> 00:04:42.540 So once the media found one, they all rushed over. 00:04:42.800 --> 00:04:45.500 It was Guo Fenglian, the former party secretary of Dazhai. 00:04:45.840 --> 00:04:47.940 And as reporters followed her and asked questions, 00:04:48.420 --> 00:04:49.980 Guo Fenglian said while walking... 00:05:02.720 --> 00:05:05.140 Now, think about it. 00:05:05.460 --> 00:05:08.700 Urban workers get pensions, but farmers get just 200 yuan. 00:05:09.200 --> 00:05:10.300 Isn't that way too little? 00:05:10.780 --> 00:05:13.560 When I saw that news, I honestly felt a bit upset. 00:05:14.180 --> 00:05:16.920 Why? Because when Guo Fenglian was talking to reporters, 00:05:17.260 --> 00:05:18.200 she looked pretty nervous. 00:05:18.640 --> 00:05:20.880 She didn't really dare stop and stand there for an interview. 00:05:21.200 --> 00:05:22.360 She was talking while walking. 00:05:22.800 --> 00:05:24.080 And everyone knows Dazhai. 00:05:24.580 --> 00:05:25.840 Back during the Cultural Revolution, 00:05:26.160 --> 00:05:28.880 it was held up by the Gang of Four as a national model. 00:05:28.880 --> 00:05:33.200 Chen Yonghui, the party secretary of Dazhai, was an illiterate peasant. 00:05:33.580 --> 00:05:36.440 And he later became a vice-premier of the state council. 00:05:37.100 --> 00:05:39.860 Guo Fenglian was his successor as party secretary. 00:05:40.380 --> 00:05:41.880 So after the Cultural Revolution ended, 00:05:42.360 --> 00:05:44.700 she of course got dragged down along with Chen Yonghui 00:05:44.700 --> 00:05:45.840 and had a rough time too. 00:05:46.320 --> 00:05:47.260 But in recent years, 00:05:47.560 --> 00:05:49.820 Guo Fenglian was elected again as a delegate 00:05:49.820 --> 00:05:51.200 to the National People's Congress. 00:05:51.480 --> 00:05:54.000 So in a sense, she still counts as a rural representative. 00:05:54.360 --> 00:05:56.860 And you can see how carefully she raised the issue 00:05:56.860 --> 00:05:58.760 of the 200 yuan pension for farmers. 00:05:59.260 --> 00:06:00.540 And that figure is not made up. 00:06:00.940 --> 00:06:02.500 There is real data behind it. 00:06:02.860 --> 00:06:03.840 I looked up an official number. 00:06:04.260 --> 00:06:07.160 The average pension under China's rural pension system, 00:06:07.460 --> 00:06:09.380 the so-called New Rural Insurance Program, 00:06:09.840 --> 00:06:12.100 is 287 yuan a month. 00:06:12.780 --> 00:06:14.080 Now don't misunderstand that number. 00:06:14.280 --> 00:06:15.020 It's only an average. 00:06:15.780 --> 00:06:18.780 The gap between different parts of the country is huge. 00:06:19.500 --> 00:06:20.620 In Shanghai, for example, 00:06:20.880 --> 00:06:24.080 it has basically reached 1,555 yuan a month, 00:06:24.320 --> 00:06:25.460 which is actually pretty high. 00:06:25.460 --> 00:06:28.240 In Beijing, it's 998 yuan, 00:06:28.480 --> 00:06:30.100 which is also not bad. 00:06:30.520 --> 00:06:33.320 But in Gansu, it's only 249 yuan. 00:06:33.700 --> 00:06:36.480 The national average is 287 yuan. 00:06:36.880 --> 00:06:40.420 And 287 yuan is clearly nowhere near enough 00:06:40.420 --> 00:06:42.380 to support a retired farmer. 00:06:42.860 --> 00:06:43.360 Why? 00:06:43.540 --> 00:06:46.920 Because according to the CCP's own published standard, 00:06:47.360 --> 00:06:49.520 the minimum living guarantee in rural China 00:06:49.520 --> 00:06:52.100 is 594 yuan a month. 00:06:52.500 --> 00:06:53.060 In other words, 00:06:53.060 --> 00:06:55.100 if you are a farmer living in rural China, 00:06:55.460 --> 00:06:56.620 the minimum amount needed 00:06:56.620 --> 00:07:00.680 just to stay above the basic survival line is 594 yuan. 00:07:01.160 --> 00:07:03.780 So if you're only getting 287 yuan, 00:07:04.240 --> 00:07:06.480 you're still several hundred yuan short. 00:07:06.900 --> 00:07:10.180 You're not even at the rural minimum subsistence level. 00:07:10.700 --> 00:07:13.780 So if you expect pensions to support farmers in old age, 00:07:14.120 --> 00:07:16.700 then no, it is clearly nowhere near enough. 00:07:17.000 --> 00:07:20.720 And that creates a huge elderly care crisis in rural China. 00:07:20.720 --> 00:07:22.880 I once read an academic paper 00:07:22.880 --> 00:07:25.080 about elderly care in rural China, 00:07:25.240 --> 00:07:28.680 and it pointed out several major features of the problem. 00:07:29.100 --> 00:07:31.500 First, the older people get, the poorer they become. 00:07:32.000 --> 00:07:34.540 When you're 60, you may still have basic mobility 00:07:34.540 --> 00:07:36.080 and some ability to work. 00:07:36.420 --> 00:07:38.320 You might still be able to take on odd jobs. 00:07:38.680 --> 00:07:40.220 But once you reach 70 or 80, 00:07:40.560 --> 00:07:42.700 the older you get, the poorer you become. 00:07:43.480 --> 00:07:46.860 Second, elderly women are poorer than elderly men. 00:07:47.220 --> 00:07:47.720 Why? 00:07:48.060 --> 00:07:49.680 Because in the rural social structure, 00:07:49.680 --> 00:07:51.800 men usually control family finances, 00:07:52.240 --> 00:07:54.500 while women often have little financial power. 00:07:54.880 --> 00:07:58.120 So once a woman loses her husband or has no one to rely on 00:07:58.120 --> 00:08:00.300 and has to depend on her children to support her, 00:08:00.720 --> 00:08:03.520 her later years can become even more miserable. 00:08:04.400 --> 00:08:06.160 Everyone knows that in Chinese society, 00:08:06.400 --> 00:08:08.920 there has long been this idea of raising sons 00:08:08.920 --> 00:08:09.960 for old age support. 00:08:10.720 --> 00:08:12.620 But the social structure of rural China 00:08:12.620 --> 00:08:14.400 has already been broken apart. 00:08:15.020 --> 00:08:16.660 The core family is weakening. 00:08:17.160 --> 00:08:19.060 The clan-based structure is gone. 00:08:19.680 --> 00:08:20.880 So under today's conditions, 00:08:21.320 --> 00:08:22.920 relying on children for young Lao 00:08:22.920 --> 00:08:24.740 is no longer something you can count on. 00:08:25.040 --> 00:08:27.140 And that is exactly what has created 00:08:27.140 --> 00:08:30.900 this very severe young Lao crisis in rural China. 00:08:31.480 --> 00:08:33.200 Do you still remember the episode 00:08:33.200 --> 00:08:35.880 that first made Hu Qianfeng go viral? 00:08:36.840 --> 00:08:39.140 Wasn't it the one where he was in Chengdu, Sichuan, 00:08:39.360 --> 00:08:41.040 and saw an elderly woman in a supermarket 00:08:41.040 --> 00:08:41.880 trying to buy something? 00:08:46.660 --> 00:08:48.420 I was 78 years old. 00:08:48.520 --> 00:08:49.560 Did you get any pension? 00:08:50.160 --> 00:08:50.760 No, no. 00:08:51.300 --> 00:08:52.440 What do your children do now? 00:08:52.900 --> 00:08:54.240 They are still studying. 00:08:54.240 --> 00:08:55.360 They have two sons. 00:08:55.600 --> 00:08:56.200 They are still studying. 00:08:56.840 --> 00:08:59.600 Do you usually spend any money? 00:09:00.400 --> 00:09:01.780 Yes, I do. 00:09:02.020 --> 00:09:03.320 I just go out and look for them. 00:09:04.720 --> 00:09:06.880 And then he just started tearing up on the spot. 00:09:07.740 --> 00:09:09.980 Did you ever do any housework? 00:09:09.980 --> 00:09:10.840 Yes, I did. 00:09:10.840 --> 00:09:12.860 I earned 300 yuan a month. 00:09:12.960 --> 00:09:14.760 A lot of people have gotten used to the glitter 00:09:14.760 --> 00:09:16.220 and glamor of China's cities. 00:09:16.220 --> 00:09:17.920 And to how beautiful and polished 00:09:17.920 --> 00:09:19.140 the cities themselves look. 00:09:19.720 --> 00:09:21.020 But what many people don't realise 00:09:21.020 --> 00:09:22.520 is that in China's countryside, 00:09:22.960 --> 00:09:25.160 there are still 180 million people 00:09:25.160 --> 00:09:29.000 living on an average monthly pension of just 280 yuan. 00:09:29.500 --> 00:09:32.360 Just imagine what kind of life that really means for them. 00:09:32.860 --> 00:09:34.500 It is exactly in this context 00:09:34.500 --> 00:09:36.540 that during this year's two sessions, 00:09:37.040 --> 00:09:39.680 some delegates proposed raising farmers' pensions 00:09:39.680 --> 00:09:41.920 to 500 yuan as quickly as possible. 00:09:42.420 --> 00:09:44.940 Some even suggested raising them to 1,000 yuan. 00:09:44.940 --> 00:09:47.160 But what was the actual result? 00:09:47.760 --> 00:09:50.460 On March 5th, at Premier Li Qiang's press conference, 00:09:50.780 --> 00:09:53.580 it was announced that farmers' pensions in 2026 00:09:53.580 --> 00:09:54.920 had been increased. 00:10:04.380 --> 00:10:08.640 20 yuan, from 143 yuan to 163 yuan a month. 00:10:08.940 --> 00:10:10.660 That is the reality in China today. 00:10:10.880 --> 00:10:12.740 So today, I want to talk about this issue. 00:10:12.740 --> 00:10:15.280 Is there any real chance that farmers' pensions 00:10:15.280 --> 00:10:17.060 could be raised to 500 yuan? 00:10:17.360 --> 00:10:19.000 Why can't they reach 500 yuan? 00:10:19.340 --> 00:10:21.500 And what is the bigger background behind all this? 00:10:21.960 --> 00:10:23.000 Before we get into that, 00:10:23.200 --> 00:10:23.980 let's first look back 00:10:23.980 --> 00:10:26.220 at how the new rural pension system came about. 00:10:26.560 --> 00:10:27.620 As everyone knows, 00:10:28.120 --> 00:10:30.580 Chinese farmers have long been ignored by society. 00:10:31.060 --> 00:10:33.200 In China, being a farmer is not just a job, 00:10:33.420 --> 00:10:34.280 it is an identity. 00:10:35.100 --> 00:10:37.220 After Mao built what he called New China, 00:10:37.480 --> 00:10:40.200 he basically divided people into different ranks. 00:10:40.580 --> 00:10:42.400 And at the very bottom were the farmers. 00:10:42.880 --> 00:10:44.780 Farmers had no right to go work in the cities, 00:10:45.020 --> 00:10:46.340 and no right to receive pensions. 00:10:46.860 --> 00:10:47.980 So when farmers got old, 00:10:48.280 --> 00:10:49.880 they could only rely on themselves. 00:10:50.520 --> 00:10:52.320 Of course, that had been the way things worked 00:10:52.320 --> 00:10:53.220 for thousands of years. 00:10:53.600 --> 00:10:55.920 But wasn't the Communist Party always claiming 00:10:55.920 --> 00:10:57.940 that it represented workers and peasants? 00:10:58.300 --> 00:11:01.652 In reality, it looked after workers, not farmers. 00:11:02.060 --> 00:11:04.927 Then, in 2009, during the Hu Wen era, 00:11:05.080 --> 00:11:07.027 the government introduced what was called 00:11:07.110 --> 00:11:09.470 the New Rural Pension System. 00:11:09.512 --> 00:11:10.692 Under that system, 00:11:10.780 --> 00:11:13.080 the central government put up 55 yuan 00:11:13.080 --> 00:11:15.380 to create a very basic pension for farmers. 00:11:15.860 --> 00:11:17.600 That 55 yuan was universal. 00:11:18.160 --> 00:11:19.545 As long as you were over 60, 00:11:19.640 --> 00:11:21.360 you could receive it every month. 00:11:21.780 --> 00:11:22.500 At the same time, 00:11:22.800 --> 00:11:24.860 they also copied the Urban Employee Pension Model 00:11:24.860 --> 00:11:26.880 and created individual accounts. 00:11:27.540 --> 00:11:29.520 These were divided into five contribution levels, 00:11:29.880 --> 00:11:33.600 100, 200, 300, 400, and 500 yuan. 00:11:34.200 --> 00:11:35.940 Depending on which level you paid into each year, 00:11:36.340 --> 00:11:38.140 local governments would add a subsidy. 00:11:38.590 --> 00:11:41.000 The minimum subsidy was 30 yuan per person. 00:11:41.540 --> 00:11:44.160 Over time, money would build up in your personal account. 00:11:44.600 --> 00:11:45.660 And once you reached 60, 00:11:45.820 --> 00:11:49.360 the total in that account would be divided by 139 months. 00:11:49.860 --> 00:11:50.800 That monthly amount, 00:11:51.180 --> 00:11:52.960 plus the 55 yuan from the government, 00:11:53.280 --> 00:11:54.080 became your pension. 00:11:54.600 --> 00:11:56.280 So yes, after 2009, 00:11:56.720 --> 00:11:58.580 farmers technically had a pension system. 00:11:58.940 --> 00:12:00.460 But the increase was extremely small. 00:12:00.960 --> 00:12:04.860 In 2009, the government's basic pension was 55 yuan. 00:12:04.860 --> 00:12:08.320 By 2015, it had risen to just 70 yuan. 00:12:08.860 --> 00:12:09.820 That took six years. 00:12:10.160 --> 00:12:12.840 And the total increase was only 15 yuan. 00:12:13.300 --> 00:12:13.980 Think about that. 00:12:14.400 --> 00:12:15.320 During the same period, 00:12:15.600 --> 00:12:18.200 how much did urban workers' pensions rise? 00:12:18.640 --> 00:12:20.460 How much did pensions for civil servants 00:12:20.460 --> 00:12:22.580 and public institutions go up? 00:12:22.800 --> 00:12:23.860 I don't even need to compare them. 00:12:24.300 --> 00:12:25.300 The increase for farmers 00:12:25.300 --> 00:12:27.060 probably didn't even amount to a fraction of that. 00:12:27.460 --> 00:12:29.540 Then it rose to 88 yuan in 2018, 00:12:30.020 --> 00:12:32.400 and to 103 yuan in 2023. 00:12:33.020 --> 00:12:35.160 After 2023, the pace picked up a little, 00:12:35.660 --> 00:12:37.640 with an average increase of 20 yuan a year. 00:12:38.320 --> 00:12:39.960 In 2024 and 2025, 00:12:40.460 --> 00:12:42.340 it went up by 20 yuan each year, 00:12:42.640 --> 00:12:44.640 reaching 143 yuan. 00:12:45.180 --> 00:12:47.760 And then, in Premier Li Jiang's government work report 00:12:47.760 --> 00:12:49.180 on March 5th this year, 00:12:49.440 --> 00:12:50.800 it was announced that in 2026, 00:12:51.020 --> 00:12:52.580 it would go up by another 20 yuan, 00:12:52.860 --> 00:12:54.740 bringing it to 163 yuan. 00:12:55.120 --> 00:12:57.260 Now, besides the basic pension provided by the government, 00:12:57.580 --> 00:13:00.700 the personal pension portion also varies from place to place. 00:13:00.700 --> 00:13:03.380 In the past, it was divided into five levels, 00:13:03.740 --> 00:13:05.380 from 100 to 500 yuan. 00:13:05.760 --> 00:13:06.820 But now in many places, 00:13:07.220 --> 00:13:09.340 the contribution tiers are much more spread out. 00:13:09.760 --> 00:13:10.380 In some areas, 00:13:10.600 --> 00:13:13.440 the highest level can go up to 10,000 yuan a year. 00:13:13.740 --> 00:13:14.540 So over time, 00:13:14.800 --> 00:13:17.360 a nationwide structure has gradually taken shape. 00:13:17.760 --> 00:13:19.480 That is the basic historical background 00:13:19.480 --> 00:13:23.000 behind the development of China's new rural pension system. 00:13:23.500 --> 00:13:24.720 Once that system was set up, 00:13:24.980 --> 00:13:26.460 China's overall pension system 00:13:26.460 --> 00:13:29.560 basically came to be divided into three major parts. 00:13:29.560 --> 00:13:31.320 The first is the pension system 00:13:31.320 --> 00:13:33.840 for government agencies and public institutions. 00:13:34.520 --> 00:13:36.700 Everyone knows that is the most privileged group. 00:13:37.340 --> 00:13:39.580 Right now, about 23 million people 00:13:39.580 --> 00:13:41.820 are receiving pensions from that system. 00:13:42.360 --> 00:13:45.200 The second is the urban employee pension system. 00:13:45.760 --> 00:13:48.180 This one is basically built on self-contribution 00:13:48.180 --> 00:13:49.400 by urban workers. 00:13:50.140 --> 00:13:51.680 The third is the pension system 00:13:51.680 --> 00:13:53.440 for urban and rural residents. 00:13:54.180 --> 00:13:56.700 Right now, about 180 million people 00:13:56.700 --> 00:13:58.780 are receiving pensions from that system. 00:13:59.220 --> 00:14:01.880 While the number receiving urban employee pensions 00:14:01.880 --> 00:14:04.220 is about 120 million. 00:14:04.800 --> 00:14:05.320 So nationwide, 00:14:05.680 --> 00:14:08.300 there are roughly 330 million people 00:14:08.300 --> 00:14:10.200 receiving pensions in total. 00:14:10.500 --> 00:14:12.560 Now, among these three systems, 00:14:12.840 --> 00:14:14.620 one feature really stands out. 00:14:15.040 --> 00:14:15.560 The second one, 00:14:15.940 --> 00:14:17.540 the urban employee pension system 00:14:17.540 --> 00:14:20.480 is basically funded through self-accumulation. 00:14:20.820 --> 00:14:22.080 As everyone knows, 00:14:22.320 --> 00:14:23.200 if you have a job, 00:14:23.480 --> 00:14:26.760 you pay 8% yourself and your employer pays 16%. 00:14:26.760 --> 00:14:29.940 For a total of 24% going into the pension fund. 00:14:30.300 --> 00:14:31.940 But the other two systems are different. 00:14:32.380 --> 00:14:34.740 One is for government agencies and public institutions. 00:14:35.080 --> 00:14:37.540 And the other is for urban and rural residents. 00:14:38.220 --> 00:14:41.300 These two are not mainly built through self-accumulation. 00:14:41.880 --> 00:14:43.060 They are largely supported 00:14:43.060 --> 00:14:44.620 through the state welfare system. 00:14:45.340 --> 00:14:45.880 In other words, 00:14:46.040 --> 00:14:47.980 both have a very strong welfare character. 00:14:48.540 --> 00:14:50.060 Let's first look at government agencies 00:14:50.060 --> 00:14:51.320 and public institutions. 00:14:52.040 --> 00:14:52.540 As I said, 00:14:52.860 --> 00:14:55.060 only about 23 million people are in this group. 00:14:55.060 --> 00:14:55.960 Nominally, 00:14:56.320 --> 00:14:58.220 their pension system has already been merged 00:14:58.220 --> 00:14:59.680 with the urban employee system. 00:15:00.080 --> 00:15:01.560 But during that so-called merger, 00:15:02.040 --> 00:15:04.240 the government basically played a trick. 00:15:04.740 --> 00:15:05.920 On top of the basic pension, 00:15:06.260 --> 00:15:08.080 it also created an annuity system. 00:15:08.500 --> 00:15:10.420 And through large amounts of fiscal subsidies, 00:15:10.900 --> 00:15:13.360 that annuity system made sure retired officials 00:15:13.360 --> 00:15:14.700 and public sector employees 00:15:14.700 --> 00:15:17.100 did not see their pensions fall at all 00:15:17.100 --> 00:15:18.660 compared with the old system. 00:15:18.980 --> 00:15:19.640 In many cases, 00:15:19.880 --> 00:15:20.780 they actually got more. 00:15:21.300 --> 00:15:22.520 What is their replacement rate? 00:15:22.520 --> 00:15:25.000 It is between 80 and 100%. 00:15:25.000 --> 00:15:26.680 What does 100% mean? 00:15:27.040 --> 00:15:29.700 It means that once you reach a certain administrative rank, 00:15:30.040 --> 00:15:32.660 your income basically does not fall after retirement. 00:15:32.960 --> 00:15:35.460 You more or less keep receiving what you earned before. 00:15:35.920 --> 00:15:36.780 Or take another example. 00:15:37.180 --> 00:15:39.200 If you started working before 1949, 00:15:39.640 --> 00:15:42.360 then your pension could also be paid at 100%. 00:15:42.960 --> 00:15:43.820 And on top of that, 00:15:44.240 --> 00:15:46.180 the annual increases are relatively high. 00:15:46.700 --> 00:15:48.540 An 80% plus replacement rate 00:15:48.540 --> 00:15:50.680 is already among the highest in the world. 00:15:51.200 --> 00:15:52.040 In most countries, 00:15:52.040 --> 00:15:55.780 pension replacement rates are only around 40 to 50%. 00:15:55.780 --> 00:15:56.780 But in China, 00:15:57.140 --> 00:15:59.600 for government agencies and public institutions, 00:15:59.980 --> 00:16:01.920 it is 80 to 100%. 00:16:02.340 --> 00:16:03.940 Now look at the lowest end of the system, 00:16:04.260 --> 00:16:07.480 which is the pension program for urban and rural residents. 00:16:07.920 --> 00:16:10.360 This one is also mainly supported by state finances. 00:16:10.840 --> 00:16:12.340 For example, in 2025, 00:16:12.880 --> 00:16:14.620 the total size of the pension fund 00:16:14.620 --> 00:16:16.140 for urban and rural residents 00:16:16.140 --> 00:16:18.500 was more than 700 billion yuan. 00:16:19.340 --> 00:16:20.000 Out of that, 00:16:20.340 --> 00:16:21.680 more than 400 billion 00:16:21.680 --> 00:16:24.060 came directly from government fiscal support. 00:16:24.640 --> 00:16:27.080 So yes, it also depends mainly on government welfare. 00:16:27.540 --> 00:16:30.680 The problem is that it is welfare at a very low level. 00:16:31.320 --> 00:16:32.380 Let me give you one example. 00:16:32.940 --> 00:16:34.280 Among these three pension systems, 00:16:34.440 --> 00:16:36.880 each one receives annual subsidies from the state. 00:16:37.360 --> 00:16:40.700 In 2023, how much did the state subsidize the pension system 00:16:40.700 --> 00:16:43.420 for government agencies and public institutions? 00:16:44.200 --> 00:16:48.060 599.1 billion yuan for just 23 million people. 00:16:48.600 --> 00:16:50.060 For the urban employee pension system, 00:16:50.260 --> 00:16:54.120 the subsidy was 773.1 billion yuan. 00:16:54.620 --> 00:16:55.960 And for urban and rural residents, 00:16:56.240 --> 00:16:56.940 how much was it? 00:16:57.220 --> 00:16:59.780 Just 378.9 billion yuan. 00:17:00.220 --> 00:17:02.240 But just look at the population breakdown. 00:17:02.820 --> 00:17:04.780 The urban and rural resident system 00:17:04.780 --> 00:17:07.780 covers 180 million people. 00:17:08.200 --> 00:17:11.880 The urban employee system covers 120 million. 00:17:12.540 --> 00:17:14.180 And the system for government agencies 00:17:14.180 --> 00:17:17.780 and public institutions covers only 23 million. 00:17:18.460 --> 00:17:20.100 Now look at the subsidy per person. 00:17:20.660 --> 00:17:21.520 For urban employees, 00:17:21.840 --> 00:17:26.660 the average annual subsidy is about 3,825 yuan per person. 00:17:27.040 --> 00:17:28.440 For urban and rural residents, 00:17:28.740 --> 00:17:31.520 it is only 246 yuan per person. 00:17:31.880 --> 00:17:34.160 And for government agencies and public institutions, 00:17:34.380 --> 00:17:35.180 it is even higher. 00:17:35.700 --> 00:17:36.460 How big is the gap? 00:17:36.880 --> 00:17:39.100 It can be as high as 17 to 1. 00:17:39.560 --> 00:17:40.200 In other words, 00:17:40.200 --> 00:17:42.180 every person in a government agency 00:17:42.180 --> 00:17:45.140 or public institution receives 17 times 00:17:45.140 --> 00:17:47.600 as much fiscal subsidy from the state each year 00:17:47.600 --> 00:17:49.520 as an urban or rural resident does. 00:17:49.820 --> 00:17:52.820 And by 2024, that gap was still widening. 00:17:53.460 --> 00:17:56.760 In 2024, subsidies for urban and rural residents 00:17:56.760 --> 00:17:59.760 came to 434.5 billion yuan. 00:18:00.380 --> 00:18:02.340 Subsidies for the urban employee pension system 00:18:02.340 --> 00:18:04.620 were 806.6 billion yuan. 00:18:05.020 --> 00:18:06.580 And subsidies for government agencies 00:18:06.580 --> 00:18:10.060 and public institutions were 643.9 billion yuan. 00:18:10.500 --> 00:18:12.480 I also looked at the Ministry of Finance data. 00:18:12.940 --> 00:18:13.920 At the budgeting stage, 00:18:14.220 --> 00:18:16.880 they had actually set aside 710 billion yuan 00:18:16.880 --> 00:18:19.300 for government agencies and public institutions. 00:18:19.660 --> 00:18:21.300 Then when the final accounts came out, 00:18:21.520 --> 00:18:24.100 they still had 70 billion left over. 00:18:24.480 --> 00:18:25.740 That tells you just how favorable 00:18:25.740 --> 00:18:27.560 the conditions are for that group. 00:18:27.820 --> 00:18:29.660 And this creates a huge unfairness. 00:18:30.020 --> 00:18:30.680 Think about it. 00:18:30.840 --> 00:18:32.440 These are all fiscal subsidies. 00:18:32.880 --> 00:18:34.380 But people in government agencies 00:18:34.380 --> 00:18:37.300 and public institutions receive 17 times 00:18:37.300 --> 00:18:39.480 what urban and rural residents get. 00:18:40.140 --> 00:18:41.380 What is the logic behind that? 00:18:41.640 --> 00:18:44.180 If the state is putting up the same public money every year, 00:18:44.580 --> 00:18:45.780 roughly 2 trillion yuan, 00:18:46.260 --> 00:18:47.860 then in principle, the subsidy 00:18:47.860 --> 00:18:51.000 should be distributed more evenly on a per-person basis. 00:18:51.380 --> 00:18:53.020 That would at least make basic sense. 00:18:53.360 --> 00:18:56.200 So when Chinese farmers end up with pensions this low, 00:18:56.520 --> 00:18:59.000 the real issue is not simply that they deserve less. 00:18:59.580 --> 00:19:01.260 At its core, this is the result 00:19:01.260 --> 00:19:03.560 of an unfair redistribution system. 00:19:04.040 --> 00:19:05.760 And speaking of unfair redistribution, 00:19:06.300 --> 00:19:07.900 there is one more point that needs to be made. 00:19:08.340 --> 00:19:10.880 A lot of people say farmers do not get decent pensions 00:19:10.880 --> 00:19:13.060 because they never built up enough personal contributions. 00:19:13.580 --> 00:19:16.340 Urban workers paid into the system for 20 or 30 years, 00:19:16.480 --> 00:19:18.140 so now they receive retirement benefits. 00:19:18.460 --> 00:19:20.980 But that argument misses a major historical debt. 00:19:21.500 --> 00:19:23.740 Historically, Chinese farmers were in many ways 00:19:23.740 --> 00:19:26.260 employees of the state, even if they were called peasants. 00:19:26.800 --> 00:19:28.960 Take the big infrastructure projects of the past, 00:19:29.260 --> 00:19:31.340 irrigation works, roads, canals. 00:19:31.340 --> 00:19:33.420 When Henan built the Red Flag Canal, 00:19:33.940 --> 00:19:36.260 wasn't it farmers who were forced to provide unpaid labour? 00:19:36.620 --> 00:19:38.660 When farmers did that kind of compulsory work, 00:19:38.880 --> 00:19:40.320 they received no income at all. 00:19:40.680 --> 00:19:43.380 It was basically like corvée labor in ancient times. 00:19:43.720 --> 00:19:45.200 Now, if the state made them work, 00:19:45.460 --> 00:19:47.500 did the state pay pension contributions for them? 00:19:47.700 --> 00:19:48.460 Of course not. 00:19:48.700 --> 00:19:50.880 But if the state compelled farmers to provide labour, 00:19:51.280 --> 00:19:53.440 shouldn't the state also have taken responsibility 00:19:53.440 --> 00:19:54.780 for their social security? 00:19:55.200 --> 00:19:56.200 That is the first point. 00:19:56.420 --> 00:19:57.480 The second point is this. 00:19:57.720 --> 00:19:58.800 For a very long time, 00:19:58.800 --> 00:20:02.740 rural China operated under so-called village self-governance. 00:20:03.080 --> 00:20:03.900 At the village level, 00:20:04.200 --> 00:20:06.640 that meant almost all public services were paid for 00:20:06.640 --> 00:20:07.720 by farmers themselves. 00:20:08.180 --> 00:20:10.120 This was the old system of the so-called 00:20:10.120 --> 00:20:12.200 three deductions and five unified charges. 00:20:12.640 --> 00:20:14.380 So in addition to agricultural taxes, 00:20:14.760 --> 00:20:17.020 farmers also had to pay for all kinds of local expenses, 00:20:17.620 --> 00:20:20.180 village-level fees, township-level fees, 00:20:20.480 --> 00:20:22.420 things like teachers' salaries in rural schools, 00:20:22.760 --> 00:20:24.120 the pay for village committee members, 00:20:24.480 --> 00:20:25.940 local public security expenses. 00:20:25.940 --> 00:20:28.380 All of it ultimately came out of farmers' pockets. 00:20:29.020 --> 00:20:31.300 Before 2000, when we at CCTV 00:20:31.300 --> 00:20:33.780 filmed those intense conflicts in the countryside, 00:20:34.160 --> 00:20:36.060 many of them came directly from this problem. 00:20:36.480 --> 00:20:38.280 Local authorities trying to squeeze money 00:20:38.280 --> 00:20:40.920 out of extremely poor farmers through these charges, 00:20:41.260 --> 00:20:42.600 creating very sharp tensions. 00:20:43.100 --> 00:20:44.060 But if you think about it, 00:20:44.340 --> 00:20:45.820 that money should have come from the state 00:20:45.820 --> 00:20:46.640 in the first place. 00:20:47.060 --> 00:20:50.360 Public services are supposed to be supported by tax revenue. 00:20:50.740 --> 00:20:53.240 So why was it that in the poorest rural areas, 00:20:53.680 --> 00:20:55.300 farmers had to fund everything themselves? 00:20:55.300 --> 00:20:57.720 That was clearly the responsibility of the state, 00:20:58.020 --> 00:20:59.840 but the burden was shifted onto farmers. 00:21:00.140 --> 00:21:00.960 And at the same time, 00:21:01.340 --> 00:21:03.900 farmers were not even allowed to freely move to the cities 00:21:03.900 --> 00:21:05.880 to work, settle down and live there. 00:21:06.160 --> 00:21:08.140 So this is not just a policy problem today, 00:21:08.280 --> 00:21:10.000 it is also a huge historical debt. 00:21:10.400 --> 00:21:11.700 And if the government used farmers 00:21:11.700 --> 00:21:13.940 to carry out local governance in the countryside 00:21:13.940 --> 00:21:16.200 through that kind of exploitation back then, 00:21:16.680 --> 00:21:19.160 then shouldn't it now pay back that historical debt? 00:21:19.420 --> 00:21:21.260 That is the second very important point. 00:21:21.540 --> 00:21:22.900 And then there is a third point. 00:21:23.100 --> 00:21:23.920 What is the third point? 00:21:23.920 --> 00:21:25.160 Let me think for a second. 00:21:25.540 --> 00:21:27.020 My memory isn't what it used to be. 00:21:27.320 --> 00:21:27.820 Right. 00:21:27.860 --> 00:21:28.920 The third point is this. 00:21:29.220 --> 00:21:31.840 Since people keep saying farmers never paid into the system, 00:21:32.160 --> 00:21:35.000 does everyone remember that people in government agencies 00:21:35.000 --> 00:21:37.280 and public institutions also didn't pay 00:21:37.280 --> 00:21:39.080 into the pension system in the past? 00:21:39.880 --> 00:21:42.640 When I was still in China, I taught at a university. 00:21:43.480 --> 00:21:46.480 Later, when we moved into the social insurance system 00:21:46.480 --> 00:21:50.500 at CCTV, I had to get a document from my old employer. 00:21:50.760 --> 00:21:52.640 It was called deemed contribution. 00:21:53.040 --> 00:21:53.980 What that meant was, 00:21:54.300 --> 00:21:56.300 even though you hadn't actually paid pension insurance 00:21:56.300 --> 00:21:57.280 in those earlier years, 00:21:57.780 --> 00:21:59.920 the state would still recognize those years 00:21:59.920 --> 00:22:01.300 as if you had contributed. 00:22:01.780 --> 00:22:03.500 In other words, those years counted. 00:22:04.100 --> 00:22:06.020 So why is it that people in government agencies 00:22:06.020 --> 00:22:09.380 and public institutions can rely on deemed contributions 00:22:09.380 --> 00:22:10.820 and still receive pensions, 00:22:11.140 --> 00:22:13.840 while farmers, who also did not make formal contributions, 00:22:14.360 --> 00:22:16.060 are told there is no such thing for them? 00:22:16.480 --> 00:22:17.460 That is unfair too. 00:22:18.040 --> 00:22:18.780 By the same logic, 00:22:19.220 --> 00:22:21.680 if public sector employees can be treated as having paid, 00:22:21.680 --> 00:22:24.040 then farmers should also be treated that way. 00:22:24.820 --> 00:22:25.980 So you can see the point here. 00:22:26.440 --> 00:22:29.000 The argument that farmers have no right to pensions 00:22:29.000 --> 00:22:31.420 because they didn't pay into social insurance 00:22:31.420 --> 00:22:32.980 simply does not hold up. 00:22:33.560 --> 00:22:35.020 And besides, if you look around the world, 00:22:35.360 --> 00:22:36.080 in most countries, 00:22:36.200 --> 00:22:38.660 farmers' pensions are largely funded by the government. 00:22:39.100 --> 00:22:40.900 Anyway, take Taiwan, for example. 00:22:41.360 --> 00:22:43.700 Taiwan has an old age allowance for elderly farmers. 00:22:44.100 --> 00:22:44.900 From what I saw, 00:22:45.280 --> 00:22:47.040 the highest figure has already gone 00:22:47.040 --> 00:22:49.780 above 10,000 new Taiwan dollars a month. 00:22:49.780 --> 00:22:51.660 And that money is paid directly. 00:22:52.000 --> 00:22:52.840 Farmers are not required 00:22:52.840 --> 00:22:54.740 to have made pension contributions for it. 00:22:55.100 --> 00:22:56.480 There is an income cap, of course. 00:22:56.900 --> 00:22:58.500 Once your income reaches a certain level, 00:22:58.680 --> 00:22:59.560 you no longer qualify. 00:23:00.040 --> 00:23:00.540 But in essence, 00:23:00.900 --> 00:23:03.340 it is a universal old age welfare program 00:23:03.340 --> 00:23:04.480 funded by the state. 00:23:04.900 --> 00:23:06.080 And why do I call it universal? 00:23:06.440 --> 00:23:08.380 Because the money comes from public finance. 00:23:08.720 --> 00:23:09.420 As I said earlier, 00:23:09.960 --> 00:23:13.020 China already spends close to two trillion yuan a year 00:23:13.020 --> 00:23:15.620 subsidizing its three major pension systems. 00:23:16.060 --> 00:23:18.580 But because government agencies and public institutions 00:23:18.580 --> 00:23:20.000 take the biggest share, 00:23:20.500 --> 00:23:21.920 and farmers get the smallest share, 00:23:22.240 --> 00:23:23.500 the result is that farmers 00:23:23.500 --> 00:23:25.920 can only get around 200 yuan a month, 00:23:26.140 --> 00:23:28.200 while many people in government agencies 00:23:28.200 --> 00:23:29.280 and public institutions 00:23:29.280 --> 00:23:32.760 can get 8,000 or even 10,000 yuan a month. 00:23:33.020 --> 00:23:35.820 If this money were turned into a more universal system 00:23:35.820 --> 00:23:37.980 and distributed on a per-person basis, 00:23:38.400 --> 00:23:40.600 some calculations show that farmers' pensions 00:23:40.600 --> 00:23:43.700 could immediately rise to around 560 yuan a month. 00:23:44.060 --> 00:23:45.300 That would be much closer 00:23:45.300 --> 00:23:47.560 to the basic principle of citizenship. 00:23:47.560 --> 00:23:49.700 Because if pensions are being paid 00:23:49.700 --> 00:23:51.920 out of public finances to the whole population, 00:23:52.380 --> 00:23:53.880 then why should people in government agencies 00:23:53.880 --> 00:23:54.900 and public institutions, 00:23:55.300 --> 00:23:56.940 who are already relatively well-off, 00:23:57.200 --> 00:23:58.460 still get such high pensions, 00:23:58.700 --> 00:24:00.340 while farmers, who are much poorer, 00:24:00.560 --> 00:24:01.420 get such low ones? 00:24:01.820 --> 00:24:04.120 Clearly, this is a deeply unfair pension system. 00:24:04.520 --> 00:24:06.060 So if you look at the issue carefully, 00:24:06.620 --> 00:24:08.600 the reason Chinese farmers cannot get pensions 00:24:08.600 --> 00:24:09.980 of 500 yuan a month 00:24:09.980 --> 00:24:11.800 is not that the state cannot afford it. 00:24:12.160 --> 00:24:12.900 The real reason 00:24:12.900 --> 00:24:14.980 is that the redistribution system itself 00:24:14.980 --> 00:24:16.200 is obviously unfair. 00:24:16.200 --> 00:24:17.500 So from that perspective, 00:24:17.900 --> 00:24:18.900 what does it really mean 00:24:18.900 --> 00:24:21.880 when farmers' pensions go up by just 20 yuan a year? 00:24:22.160 --> 00:24:23.960 Is that some kind of benevolent policy? 00:24:24.280 --> 00:24:25.960 Or does it show that farmers' interests 00:24:25.960 --> 00:24:27.200 are still being ignored? 00:24:28.040 --> 00:24:29.780 My own conclusion is very clear. 00:24:30.480 --> 00:24:32.420 Giving farmers just 20 extra yuan a year 00:24:32.420 --> 00:24:34.360 is not some great act of benevolence. 00:24:34.820 --> 00:24:35.960 It is simply another sign 00:24:35.960 --> 00:24:38.880 that farmers' interests are continuing to be neglected. 00:24:39.440 --> 00:24:40.940 And that is why many scholars, 00:24:41.240 --> 00:24:42.820 and also some NPC delegates, 00:24:43.200 --> 00:24:44.880 are now calling for farmers' pensions 00:24:44.880 --> 00:24:46.760 to be raised to 500 yuan 00:24:46.760 --> 00:24:48.040 as quickly as possible. 00:25:16.040 --> 00:25:21.940 Now, there are a few possible paths for reform here. 00:25:22.360 --> 00:25:24.160 The ideal path is the one I mentioned earlier. 00:25:24.580 --> 00:25:26.580 Level out the amount of public fiscal subsidies 00:25:26.580 --> 00:25:27.620 across the board. 00:25:27.980 --> 00:25:28.500 In other words, 00:25:29.020 --> 00:25:31.200 people in government agencies and public institutions, 00:25:31.660 --> 00:25:32.980 urban workers, and farmers 00:25:32.980 --> 00:25:35.520 should all enjoy the same basic pension support 00:25:35.520 --> 00:25:36.520 from public finances. 00:25:36.920 --> 00:25:37.600 If you did that, 00:25:37.880 --> 00:25:39.600 farmers' pensions could immediately rise 00:25:39.600 --> 00:25:41.900 to around 560 yuan a month. 00:25:42.400 --> 00:25:43.900 Pensions for people in government agencies 00:25:43.900 --> 00:25:44.860 and public institutions 00:25:44.860 --> 00:25:46.180 would probably come down a bit, 00:25:46.700 --> 00:25:47.980 meaning their retirement income 00:25:47.980 --> 00:25:49.560 would be reduced somewhat. 00:25:50.180 --> 00:25:50.820 But the truth is, 00:25:51.020 --> 00:25:52.700 their replacement rate, over 80%, 00:25:52.700 --> 00:25:54.200 is already far too high. 00:25:54.620 --> 00:25:55.540 It's deeply unfair, 00:25:55.800 --> 00:25:56.840 and it should come down anyway. 00:25:57.300 --> 00:25:58.220 As for urban workers, 00:25:58.620 --> 00:26:00.760 their replacement rate is around 40 to 50%. 00:26:00.760 --> 00:26:02.760 I think that can stay where it is for now. 00:26:03.240 --> 00:26:05.320 But for government agencies and public institutions, 00:26:05.800 --> 00:26:08.640 the annual subsidy is now around 640 billion yuan. 00:26:08.900 --> 00:26:09.520 I ran the numbers. 00:26:09.920 --> 00:26:12.940 If you simply redirected that 640 billion yuan to farmers, 00:26:13.250 --> 00:26:14.720 then the basic pension for farmers 00:26:14.720 --> 00:26:17.540 could go straight up to around 500 yuan a month. 00:26:17.900 --> 00:26:18.400 In other words, 00:26:18.540 --> 00:26:19.640 even if you leave the subsidies 00:26:19.640 --> 00:26:21.740 for urban workers completely untouched 00:26:21.740 --> 00:26:24.240 and only take the 640 billion yuan 00:26:24.240 --> 00:26:26.900 now going to government agencies and public institutions 00:26:26.900 --> 00:26:28.440 and give it to farmers instead, 00:26:28.880 --> 00:26:32.280 farmers' basic pension could still rise to 500 yuan a month. 00:26:32.580 --> 00:26:34.000 That would be the best solution. 00:26:34.460 --> 00:26:35.500 The second option is this. 00:26:35.920 --> 00:26:37.740 Leave the pensions for government agencies 00:26:37.740 --> 00:26:39.900 and public institutions alone. 00:26:40.220 --> 00:26:41.800 Leave urban workers alone as well, 00:26:41.800 --> 00:26:44.120 and just raise farmers' pensions separately. 00:26:44.780 --> 00:26:46.580 If you want to raise them to 500 yuan a month, 00:26:46.800 --> 00:26:48.400 our calculation is that it would require 00:26:48.400 --> 00:26:52.640 an additional 729.5 billion yuan a year. 00:26:53.140 --> 00:26:54.480 Now, how big is that number 00:26:54.480 --> 00:26:56.180 relative to China's public finances? 00:26:56.820 --> 00:26:58.500 China's annual public fiscal spending 00:26:58.500 --> 00:27:00.680 is about 28 trillion yuan. 00:27:01.100 --> 00:27:03.960 So 729.5 billion would account 00:27:03.960 --> 00:27:06.360 for roughly 2.5% of total public spending. 00:27:06.480 --> 00:27:07.480 That is not a small number. 00:27:07.960 --> 00:27:10.400 It's probably about half of China's military budget, right? 00:27:10.400 --> 00:27:12.920 Cut two aircraft carriers, and the money is there. 00:27:13.240 --> 00:27:14.840 Of course, a lot of people would disagree with that. 00:27:15.100 --> 00:27:18.180 But the point is, even this 729.5 billion 00:27:18.180 --> 00:27:19.980 is not impossible to come up with, 00:27:20.200 --> 00:27:22.160 especially if it is implemented in stages. 00:27:22.540 --> 00:27:24.480 Personally, I think it is entirely doable. 00:27:24.900 --> 00:27:26.360 For example, some scholars have suggested 00:27:26.360 --> 00:27:28.540 transferring a larger share of state-owned equity 00:27:28.540 --> 00:27:29.720 into the pension system 00:27:29.720 --> 00:27:31.680 and using that directly to subsidize 00:27:31.680 --> 00:27:33.080 urban and rural residents. 00:27:33.600 --> 00:27:35.440 Others have suggested taking a fixed percentage 00:27:35.440 --> 00:27:36.520 of tobacco tax revenue 00:27:36.520 --> 00:27:39.500 and channeling it directly into the resident pension system. 00:27:39.500 --> 00:27:40.780 So there are ways to do it. 00:27:40.980 --> 00:27:42.840 For example, if you raised farmers' pensions 00:27:42.840 --> 00:27:44.100 by 100 yuan a year, 00:27:44.320 --> 00:27:45.540 then within three to five years, 00:27:45.800 --> 00:27:47.760 you could bring them up to 500 yuan. 00:27:48.060 --> 00:27:49.180 That is completely achievable. 00:27:49.620 --> 00:27:51.400 And what would be the benefit of doing this? 00:27:51.820 --> 00:27:54.100 Farmers are the poorest group in Chinese society. 00:27:54.460 --> 00:27:55.820 For every extra yuan you give them, 00:27:56.100 --> 00:27:56.980 some people have calculated 00:27:56.980 --> 00:27:59.960 that they will spend 0.8 to 0.9 yuan of it. 00:28:00.260 --> 00:28:01.680 Why? Because they are poor. 00:28:02.140 --> 00:28:03.140 Once they receive the money, 00:28:03.360 --> 00:28:04.600 they will immediately use it 00:28:04.600 --> 00:28:06.080 to meet basic consumption needs. 00:28:06.380 --> 00:28:08.780 And in the end, the multiplier effect is significant. 00:28:09.230 --> 00:28:10.800 For every 1 yuan given to farmers, 00:28:11.220 --> 00:28:12.860 the total economic effect in society 00:28:12.860 --> 00:28:14.560 could reach 1.4 yuan. 00:28:15.220 --> 00:28:17.180 As everyone knows, in the past few years, 00:28:17.480 --> 00:28:18.440 the government has kept talking 00:28:18.440 --> 00:28:19.880 about boosting domestic demand. 00:28:20.540 --> 00:28:23.840 Consumption in China accounts for only about 40% of GDP. 00:28:24.740 --> 00:28:27.920 For a long time, domestic demand has been too weak. 00:28:28.400 --> 00:28:29.560 So under these circumstances, 00:28:29.980 --> 00:28:32.660 if you give farmers 700 billion yuan more, 00:28:33.020 --> 00:28:34.720 the multiplier effect could generate 00:28:34.720 --> 00:28:37.180 more than 1 trillion yuan in economic activity. 00:28:37.180 --> 00:28:38.580 So this would actually be good 00:28:38.580 --> 00:28:40.360 for both the country and the people. 00:28:40.820 --> 00:28:42.180 Once farmers have some money in hand, 00:28:42.740 --> 00:28:44.360 once that pension reaches 500 yuan, 00:28:44.740 --> 00:28:46.540 which is at least around the subsistence level, 00:28:46.760 --> 00:28:48.980 it would also help boost domestic demand. 00:28:49.420 --> 00:28:50.320 That is one proposal. 00:28:50.780 --> 00:28:53.820 There is another proposal some NPC delegates have raised, 00:28:54.080 --> 00:28:56.380 and it is a bit more cautious, a bit more conservative. 00:28:56.720 --> 00:28:59.420 The idea is to keep things basically unchanged 00:28:59.420 --> 00:29:01.080 for people in their 60s. 00:29:01.480 --> 00:29:03.360 Their pensions would still go up gradually, 00:29:03.760 --> 00:29:06.100 maybe by 20 yuan a year as they do now. 00:29:06.100 --> 00:29:07.780 But for people over 70, 00:29:08.020 --> 00:29:11.020 the pension could first be raised to 500 yuan. 00:29:11.480 --> 00:29:12.320 The reason is simple. 00:29:12.820 --> 00:29:14.700 The number of people over 70 is smaller. 00:29:15.120 --> 00:29:16.400 Their poverty is more severe. 00:29:16.960 --> 00:29:20.280 And for them, this money is much closer to lifesaving money. 00:29:20.920 --> 00:29:22.280 If that plan were adopted, 00:29:22.660 --> 00:29:24.660 the additional fiscal spending each year 00:29:24.660 --> 00:29:27.780 would be only 230 billion yuan. 00:29:28.740 --> 00:29:32.140 Against a total public spending budget of 28 trillion yuan, 00:29:32.360 --> 00:29:34.220 the impact would be even smaller. 00:29:34.780 --> 00:29:38.780 The annual increase would be less than 1% of total spending, 00:29:39.100 --> 00:29:41.000 only about 0.7%. 00:29:41.660 --> 00:29:43.940 But the problem is that Chinese farmers 00:29:43.940 --> 00:29:46.840 do not form a real interest block within the system, 00:29:47.360 --> 00:29:49.560 including within the National People's Congress. 00:29:50.000 --> 00:29:51.900 In other words, the interests of farmers 00:29:51.900 --> 00:29:55.020 basically have no real spokespeople in this society. 00:29:55.540 --> 00:29:58.640 At most, a few delegates raise the issue and make an appeal. 00:29:59.000 --> 00:30:00.780 But whether that ever gets reflected 00:30:00.780 --> 00:30:02.140 in actual government policy 00:30:02.140 --> 00:30:04.520 depends entirely on whether the people in power 00:30:04.520 --> 00:30:06.320 happen to care at that moment. 00:30:07.040 --> 00:30:08.660 So the real question is this. 00:30:09.020 --> 00:30:10.860 Out of 180 million farmers, 00:30:11.340 --> 00:30:13.720 how many people actually care about their poverty? 00:30:14.300 --> 00:30:16.160 How many elderly farmers in China 00:30:16.160 --> 00:30:19.020 have already passed away in hardship and poverty, 00:30:19.220 --> 00:30:20.780 and no one really paid attention? 00:30:21.620 --> 00:30:23.060 China now claims it is no longer 00:30:23.060 --> 00:30:24.640 the poor country it used to be. 00:30:24.820 --> 00:30:27.700 It calls itself an emerging developed nation. 00:30:28.080 --> 00:30:30.540 But with such a huge group of elderly people 00:30:30.540 --> 00:30:31.760 still trapped in poverty, 00:30:32.160 --> 00:30:35.340 can you really call yourself a rising great power? 00:30:35.980 --> 00:30:37.800 So I also hope Premier Li Qiang, 00:30:38.180 --> 00:30:40.060 after delivering your government work report, 00:30:40.520 --> 00:30:42.420 might take a look at Wangju Paya, 00:30:42.740 --> 00:30:44.780 take a look at the numbers we've laid out here. 00:30:45.140 --> 00:30:46.780 If you really are people-centred, 00:30:47.100 --> 00:30:49.620 if you really care about the poorest group in China, 00:30:49.980 --> 00:30:51.280 then I hope the Chinese government 00:30:51.280 --> 00:30:53.840 will raise farmers' pensions as soon as possible 00:30:53.840 --> 00:30:56.140 to an average of 500 yuan a month. 00:30:56.320 --> 00:30:57.500 All right, that's all for today. 00:30:57.660 --> 00:30:58.200 Thank you, everyone.